Total cost comparison — which term is better in today's Canadian rate environment?
The choice between a 1-year and 5-year fixed mortgage has become one of the most debated questions in Canadian personal finance. For years, the conventional wisdom was "5-year fixed is safe and smart." But analysis shows that short-term renewals often beat 5-year terms over long periods — at the cost of renewal uncertainty and potential for higher payments if rates spike.
Normally, you'd expect shorter terms to have lower rates (less risk for the lender). But in 2026, Canada's yield curve is somewhat inverted or flat — 1-year fixed rates are higher than 5-year fixed. This reflects market expectations that interest rates will fall over the next 5 years, so lenders price short-term rates based on today's elevated rate environment, while long-term rates reflect the expectation of future rate declines.
Academic research and mortgage analysis in Canada generally shows that variable-rate and short-term fixed mortgages outperform 5-year fixed mortgages over long periods. The reason: mortgage lenders price in a premium for certainty. Borrowers willing to accept renewal risk are, on average, rewarded with lower total interest costs. However, "on average" doesn't help if you renew at a terrible time — the 2022–2023 rate spike was punishing for those who had to renew into high rates.
In 2026, the rate inversion (1-year > 5-year) creates an interesting dynamic. If you take a 1-year at 5.09% vs. a 5-year at 4.29%, you're betting that when you renew in 12 months, rates will be below approximately 3.89% (to make the total 5-year cost equal). That's a significant drop — possible, but not guaranteed. The 5-year fixed at 4.29% represents decent value if today's rates represent a reasonable equilibrium.
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Get KOHO Free — Code 45ET55JSYALast updated: March 2026. Not financial advice. Consult a mortgage advisor for personalized recommendations.