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National average home prices, provincial breakdowns, sales trends, and Canada's real estate outlook for 2025–2026.
Canada's housing market entered 2025 with a two-speed dynamic: coastal markets (Toronto, Vancouver) softening from their peaks, while Alberta and Atlantic Canada continued to see growth. Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2024 have improved affordability and are expected to stimulate national sales volumes through 2025.
| Province | Avg Home Price | YoY Change | Market Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | $970,000 | -3% | Balanced to buyer's market |
| Ontario | $862,000 | -4% | Balanced to buyer's market |
| Alberta | $490,000 | +7% | Seller's market |
| Nova Scotia | $430,000 | +3% | Balanced |
| Quebec | $475,000 | +2% | Balanced |
| Manitoba | $355,000 | +2% | Balanced |
| Saskatchewan | $320,000 | +5% | Seller's market |
| New Brunswick | $290,000 | +4% | Balanced to seller's |
| PEI | $380,000 | +1% | Balanced |
| Newfoundland | $295,000 | +3% | Balanced |
The Bank of Canada's overnight rate reached approximately 3.00–3.25% by early 2025, down from 5.00% in 2023. 5-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 4.3–4.7%. This meaningfully reduces monthly payments: a $700,000 mortgage at 4.5% vs 5.5% saves ~$440/month.
Canada faces a "mortgage renewal cliff" in 2025–2026, with an estimated $300+ billion in mortgages coming up for renewal. Many homeowners locked in at historically low 2020–2021 rates (1.5–2.5%) will renew at 4–5%, adding $800–$1,500/month to their payments. This "payment shock" is a significant risk to consumer spending and the housing market.
The federal government announced reduced immigration targets for 2025–2026 (from ~485,000/year to ~395,000/year), easing one source of housing demand. However, Canada's population continues to grow, and housing supply remains severely constrained in most major markets.
Thousands of Canadians continue migrating from BC and Ontario to Alberta, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec, creating regional market divergences. This migration is driven by cost-of-living pressures and increased remote work flexibility.
| Metric | 2025 National Forecast |
|---|---|
| National price change | +1–4% nationally |
| Sales volume | +8–12% vs 2024 (rate cut stimulus) |
| New listings | Modest increase; supply remains tight |
| Strongest markets | Alberta, Saskatchewan, Atlantic Canada |
| Weakest markets | Toronto condos, some Ontario suburban markets |
| Wildcard risks | US-Canada trade tensions, oil price drops |