What does the Canadian housing market have in store for 2025 and 2026? After one of the most turbulent periods in Canadian real estate history — a historic boom through 2021, sharp rate-driven correction through 2022–2023, and a cautious stabilization in 2024 — the market is showing signs of renewed momentum heading into 2025.
This guide synthesizes the major forecasting factors, reviews expert predictions from Canada's leading real estate analysts, and provides city-specific outlooks for buyers and sellers planning their next move.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), major banks, and independent forecasters generally expect Canadian home prices to rise 4–7% nationally in 2025. The following factors drive this forecast:
| City | Avg Price 2025 | 2025 Forecast Growth | Market Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary | $600,000 | +5–8% | Seller's market |
| Halifax | $480,000 | +5–7% | Seller's market |
| Moncton | $350,000 | +5–7% | Seller's market |
| Edmonton | $440,000 | +4–6% | Balanced-seller |
| Vancouver | $1,200,000 | +4–6% | Balanced |
| Ottawa | $660,000 | +3–5% | Balanced |
| Toronto | $1,100,000 | +3–5% | Balanced |
| Montreal | $550,000 | +3–5% | Balanced |
| Saskatoon | $380,000 | +4–6% | Balanced |
| Winnipeg | $380,000 | +3–5% | Balanced |
| Hamilton | $750,000 | +3–5% | Balanced |
| Victoria | $900,000 | +3–5% | Balanced |
| Barrie | $700,000 | +2–4% | Balanced |
| Toronto Condos | $670,000 | 0–2% | Buyer's market |
The Bank of Canada's rate cutting cycle is the single largest catalyst for the 2025 recovery. When the overnight rate fell from 5.0% to 3.0%, fixed mortgage rates dropped from over 6% to the low-to-mid 4% range. This improvement reduces monthly carrying costs by $600–$900 on a typical Canadian mortgage, bringing hundreds of thousands of households back into buying range.
The full impact of rate cuts typically takes 12–18 months to flow through to housing prices. This means the cuts of late 2024 are still working their way through the market in 2025, suggesting the early part of 2025 may be stronger than the latter as the rate-cut stimulus is absorbed.
Canada's immigration targets are structurally significant for housing demand. At 400,000 new permanent residents per year, plus hundreds of thousands of temporary residents (international students, temporary workers), the annual demand addition to housing is massive. Most of this demand concentrates in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa — exactly the markets where supply is most constrained.
The federal government has reduced some immigration targets for 2025–2026 in response to housing pressure. Even at reduced targets, immigration will add far more to demand than new supply can accommodate in the near term.
Looking further ahead to 2026, most analysts expect:
No forecast is certain. The following risks could push outcomes below expectations:
The improved rate environment and post-correction pricing in many Ontario and BC markets creates genuine opportunity for buyers who:
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Open KOHO Free — Code 45ET55JSYAYes. Most forecasters expect 4–7% national average price growth in 2025, driven by rate cuts, immigration, and supply shortages. Some markets (Calgary, Halifax) are expected to outperform this range.
Ontario and BC markets hardest hit by the 2022 correction are not expected to fully recover to peak prices universally until 2026–2027 in most scenarios. Calgary and Atlantic markets have already surpassed their 2022 peaks.
US tariffs and trade disputes are the most significant near-term risk. If US-Canada trade policy deteriorates materially, Canadian employment could suffer, reducing housing demand below forecast.